Other peo­ple are far supe­rior than us at pre­dict­ing our behav­iour as their pre­dic­tions are based pri­mar­ily on obser­va­tion and are not tainted by our psy­cho­log­i­cal narrative.

After read­ing Tim­o­thy Wilson’s Strangers to Our­selves, Nick Southgate–faculty mem­ber at London’s The School of Life–dis­cusses this idea that our friends and acquain­tances are bet­ter than us at pre­dict­ing our future behav­iour .

We like to think of our intro­spected moti­va­tions as pre­dic­tive facts that will tell us what we will do. How­ever […] our inner reflec­tions dis­cover not facts but a story we tell to our­selves about our­selves. These sto­ries tend to be rose-tinted. We see our­selves as more con­sis­tent, admirable and stead­fast than we turn out to be. We for­get con­trary behav­iour and pre­vi­ous weak­ness and focus on being better.

In con­trast, other peo­ple can only base their pre­dic­tions on behav­iour they have observed. This gives them a fac­tual edge. They know you are always late, don’t stick to diets, drive too fast and tend to for­get birth­days. Their judge­ment is not clouded by res­o­lu­tions to reform one­self and the self-preserving instinct to not dwell on past misdemeanours.

Con­se­quently, if we want to know what you will do next, it is often bet­ter to ask oth­ers than it is to ask your­self. Friends and fam­ily can know you bet­ter than you know your­self. Even strangers, who can see a sit­u­a­tion more clearly than you, can make bet­ter predictions.

via The Browser