Did the Amer­i­can econ­o­mist Harry Dent cor­rectly pre­dict the reces­sion, and is it really the fault of retir­ing baby boomers?

Dent pop­u­larised the ‘age wave’ the­ory through his research on “the highly pre­dictable nature of con­sumer spend­ing based on a fam­ily for­ma­tion pattern”.

Some experts expect the worst con­sumer reces­sion since 1980 to occur when age­ing boomers start retir­ing, adding to ris­ing unem­ploy­ment, decline in house val­ues, and declin­ing stock prices. How­ever other experts have sug­gested that immi­gra­tion to the US and rise of emerg­ing economies will off­set the demo­graphic impact.

The biggest ‘boom’ in baby boomer retire­ments started in 2007 and will con­tinue ’til 2009.